With conflict spreading and old forums faltering, Manila became one of the rare places where powers still chose dialogue
Published 2 Aug, 2026 11:47
By Ladislav Zemánek, non-resident research fellow at China-CEE Institute and expert of the Valdai Discussion Club
By Ladislav Zemánek, non-resident research fellow at China-CEE Institute and expert of the Valdai Discussion Club
Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan speaks with Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference on July 22, 2026 in Pasay, Metro Manila, Philippines © Ezra Acayan / Getty Images
In late July, the Philippines did something that has become increasingly rare. It made great powers sit down. Under the chairmanship of the Philippines, the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Manila and its dense constellation of related gatherings turned the capital into one of the few reliable stages where rivals still appear in the same rooms, exchange views, and keep channels open.
From July 20 to 24, foreign ministers from Southeast Asia, the United States, China, Russia, Japan, India, Europe, and beyond convened against a distinctly unsettled backdrop of escalating hostilities between the US and Iran and rising tensions between Beijing and the Philippines after incidents in the South China Sea.
Yet ASEAN did what it has long done best – it refused to let the friction dictate the terms. The organization offered something that is in very short supply in the modern world of competing geopolitical blocs: a neutral platform where conversation remains possible and practical cooperation continues.
A region under pressure
The timing was anything but comfortable. The Middle East conflict has already begun to squeeze energy prices, shipping insurance, and supply-chain calculations across Asia. For a region whose growth remains tightly linked to imported fuel, the risks are very real. Closer to home, the South China Sea incident added another layer of sensitivity to an already delicate maritime equation. All of these were live pressures that tested ASEAN’s claim to remain the primary driving force in the regional architecture.
Yet the Joint Communiqué adopted on July 21 showed neither panic nor denial. Ministers reaffirmed the peaceful resolution of disputes, full respect for international law including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the principle of ASEAN centrality. Negotiations on a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea continued, with eyes fixed on further progress ahead of the November Summit.
On Myanmar, the Five-Point Consensus remained the central reference, with discussion focused on measurable steps rather than rhetorical gestures. ASEAN would address its challenges on its own terms, without allowing external turbulence to rewrite the regional script.
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The power of the side table
What gave the Manila meetings their particular charge was not only the formal agenda but the density of bilateral encounters conducted on its margins. ASEAN does not pretend to mediate every dispute or to impose outcomes on larger powers. Its real craft lies in creating the conditions under which those powers can still speak.
The first-ever meeting of the Quad foreign ministers on the sidelines of ASEAN-led events reaffirmed support for a “free and open Indo-Pacific” while explicitly endorsing ASEAN’s unity and centrality. Concurrent sessions of the ASEAN Plus Three, the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, and the ASEAN Regional Forum further illustrated the layered architecture that continues to revolve around ASEAN as its institutional core. In a period when many multilateral forums have become arenas of performance, Manila still functioned as a workplace.
Lavrov and Rubio
Among the most closely watched encounters was the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The American side initiated the talks – an important detail in itself. It signaled that even in a period of sharp differences, Washington recognizes the necessity of sustained contact between the world’s two largest nuclear powers.
The discussion covered the Ukraine conflict, the state of bilateral relations, and regional questions of mutual concern. Lavrov set out Russia’s positions with characteristic clarity. Both ministers welcomed the resumption of full contacts between Roscosmos and NASA and spoke in favor of expanding inter-parliamentary exchanges and cultural ties. Rubio indicated that the US remains prepared to play a constructive role in efforts aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
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Expanding partnerships in a crowded landscape
ASEAN’s external relations received concrete reinforcement. Türkiye was admitted as the organization’s 12th Dialogue Partner, joining a diverse group that already includes China, India, Russia, the US, and the EU. Germany and Qatar were elevated to Sectoral Dialogue Partner status. These decisions reflected continued international confidence in ASEAN’s capacity to manage its own agenda and to offer partners meaningful avenues for engagement without demanding alignment on every geopolitical question.
The 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia provided an additional opportunity to widen the circle. New accessions further illustrated the treaty’s enduring appeal as a foundation for peaceful interstate relations. The steady expansion of ASEAN’s partnership network stands as evidence of practical attraction rather than mere ceremonial goodwill.
Energy as the new front line
Few issues illustrated the collision of distant conflict and regional interest more sharply than energy. The flare-up involving the US and Iran has returned attention to the vulnerability of petroleum supply routes and the need for collective resilience. Ministers highlighted the continuing relevance of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security and the practical advances already achieved under the ASEAN Power Grid.
These mechanisms, developed through years of patient technical work, now function as instruments for managing risk. In the Joint Communiqué, energy security, food security and supply-chain stability were treated central to the region’s ability to absorb external shocks. The emphasis on accelerating implementation of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation reflected a clear understanding: geopolitical turbulence abroad quickly becomes an economic and social challenge at home.
Centrality is key
Throughout the meetings, ASEAN ministers returned repeatedly to the concept of centrality. As major-power rivalries intensify globally, the organization’s insistence on remaining the primary driving force in the regional architecture is both a principle and a practical necessity. The Joint Communiqué underscored the determination to project common positions, to leverage ASEAN-led mechanisms, and to contribute to an order anchored in international law.
ASEAN does not seek to exclude external partners or to pretend that differences do not exist. The region’s preferences – for consensus, for non-interference, and for inclusive dialogue – continue to shape the terms of engagement. The presence of representatives from the full spectrum of major powers in Manila was itself a recognition of that reality.
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The Manila lesson
The meetings in the Philippines capital showed that inclusive, ASEAN-centered diplomacy retains practical value even when the global atmosphere grows more polarized. The Lavrov-Rubio conversation, the discussions between Rubio and Wang Yi preparing the ground for higher-level contacts, the expansion of formal partnerships, and the steady attention to energy and maritime cooperation all pointed in the same direction.
The region faces real pressures: an unsettled Middle East, maritime tensions in the South China Sea, and the structural competition between major powers that shapes the wider Indo-Pacific. ASEAN’s response to these pressures, as seen in Manila, is to insist that dialogue is better than conflict and silent treatments, centrality is better than fragmentation, and that patient institution-building is the best path through turbulence.
For an international community searching for spaces where conversation is still possible, the message from Manila was both timely and consequential. When the storm rises, ASEAN still sets the table. And for now, that may be the most valuable service of all.
